MLB
Chandler Simpson Is a Sneaky AL Rookie of the Year Value Bet at +6000
What if I told you there was a player who stole 104 bases in 110 minor league games last season, after swiping 93 bags in 115 games the year before — and you can get him at +6000 to win AL Rookie of the Year at Caesars Sportsbook?
That player is Chandler Simpson, and the Tampa Bay Rays outfielder might be the best-kept secret in baseball early in the 2025 season. And he just got called up to the Majors.
Elite Speed and Contact Skills
Simpson’s 80-grade speed is legit — the type of game-breaking, elite athleticism that can completely alter how a defense plays behind a pitcher. In fact, if he earns consistent playing time, he could be a dark horse to lead the entire league in stolen bases this season.
But Simpson isn’t just a track star in cleats. He’s proven that he can handle the bat at the minor league level, slashing .355/.410/.397 across High-A and Double-A last season. While the power is almost nonexistent (he has yet to hit a professional home run), Simpson’s game is built on putting the ball in play and letting his speed do the rest.
He’s posted a 93% contact rate, rarely strikes out, and has one of the lowest swing-and-miss rates in all of minor league baseball.
Opportunity Is Knocking
With Tampa Bay struggling to generate consistent offense, especially at the top of the lineup, Simpson has a realistic path to everyday at-bats. If he claims the leadoff spot, his production — especially in terms of stolen bases and run scoring — could explode.
The Rays have historically valued high-contact, speed-oriented players, and Simpson fits that mold perfectly. His unique skill set could inject life into a stale lineup and make him a darling of advanced metrics, WAR-based value models, and old-school baseball eyes alike.
A Legitimate AL Rookie of the Year Longshot
Most of the attention in the AL Rookie of the Year market is understandably on big-name prospects with loud power or pitching tools. But Simpson could quietly rack up value in ways that voters appreciate: hustle, consistency, elite baserunning, and timely hits.
At +6000, you’re getting longshot odds on a player with an everyday role upside, elite carrying tools, and already making noise in Spring Training. That’s the type of lottery ticket worth grabbing before the market catches up.
Final Thoughts
If Chandler Simpson gets the opportunity — and it looks like he might — there’s no reason he can’t be this year’s Corbin Carroll, minus the pop, but with even more speed. At +6000 to win AL Rookie of the Year at Caesars, he’s a high-upside value bet that could cash big.
Using Sleeper Central’s Longshot Analyzer tool, I can see this has a 1.49% implied probability to hit, which makes it an outstanding value, especially considering he’s around +4000 at most other books right now.
Keep an eye on this kid. If he starts running — and he will — the buzz will follow quickly.
Dan Karpuc is the Founder of Sleeper Central and a seasoned sports betting expert. Previously, he served as the Director of Digital Content at BetQL (acquired by Audacy) and has contributed to top sports media outlets, including GiveMeSport, 12Up, TradeSports, HuffPost, Bleacher Report, and ESPN. With millions of words published across the industry, Dan is a leading voice in sports betting analysis and strategy. His passion for longshot player prop bets fueled the creation of Sleeper Central, where he continues to provide sharp insights and innovative betting content.
