MLB
NL MVP Longshot Alert: Jackson Merrill Offers Massive Value
Jackson Merrill could quietly build an MVP-caliber season with the Padres. With +20000 odds, he’s one of the best longshot betting values right now.
The National League MVP conversation is already swirling with familiar names like Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, and Ronald Acuña Jr., but savvy bettors know the most profitable futures often come from the longshot tier. That’s where Jackson Merrill steps in. Listed at +20000 to win NL MVP on FanDuel (and +8000 on DraftKings), Merrill might be the best deep value on the board — and the window to buy low could close quickly.
Merrill, now in his second season with the San Diego Padres, missed the start of the year due to injury but has come back red-hot. Through his first 12 games of 2025, he’s slashing an eye-popping .400/.440/.733 with four home runs and 12 RBIs. This isn’t a flash in the pan. It’s a continuation of a breakout rookie campaign in 2024 when he played 156 games and posted a .292/.326/.500 line with 24 homers, 90 RBIs, 16 stolen bases, 31 doubles, six triples, and 77 runs scored. Those numbers already place him in elite company, and with a full healthy season, Merrill could push those totals even higher.
What separates Merrill from other talented young hitters is his performance in the clutch. Throughout his young career, he’s delivered in high-leverage situations with a 194 wRC+, 1.066 OPS, and .446 wOBA. He’s not just producing — he’s producing when it matters most. If the Padres contend this season, those moments will be magnified, and Merrill’s name will quickly rise into the national MVP conversation.
Despite the statistical case and growing buzz around his potential, oddsmakers haven’t caught up yet. His +20000 number at FanDuel is wildly misaligned with both his production and upside. He’s already shown all the tools — power, contact, speed, defensive reliability — and now he’s stepping into a leadership role on a high-profile team that’s hungry to return to the playoffs.
For those who follow the hobby side of the game, there’s also reason to take notice. I listed a 2021 Jackson Merrill Silver Prizm Draft Picks Auto (#PDP27) on eBay in excellent condition. It’s ungraded but clean — and with Merrill’s stock rising, it could turn into a high-end piece if he continues on his current trajectory.
Merrill has everything working in his favor: statistical pedigree, narrative upside, elite clutch performance, and a team with a national spotlight. These are the ingredients of a breakout MVP campaign — and at +20000, this is the kind of longshot that doesn’t just have value — it has legs.
Dan Karpuc is the Founder of Sleeper Central and a seasoned sports betting expert. Previously, he served as the Director of Digital Content at BetQL (acquired by Audacy) and has contributed to top sports media outlets, including GiveMeSport, 12Up, TradeSports, HuffPost, Bleacher Report, and ESPN. With millions of words published across the industry, Dan is a leading voice in sports betting analysis and strategy. His passion for longshot player prop bets fueled the creation of Sleeper Central, where he continues to provide sharp insights and innovative betting content.
