NFL
Mike Tomlin at +4000 is the Best Value Bet for 2025 NFL Coach of the Year
Mike Tomlin has never won Coach of the Year despite 18 straight non-losing seasons. At +4000 odds, he’s the best value bet for 2025.
If there’s one thing bettors should know by now, it’s this: Never doubt Mike Tomlin. Yet somehow, one of the most consistently successful coaches in NFL history opens the 2025 season with +4000 odds to win Coach of the Year at DraftKings — tied for the fifth-longest odds on the board. In a market driven largely by narratives and team turnarounds, Tomlin is the perfect sleeper.
Let’s start with the résumé. Since taking over in 2007, Tomlin has never had a losing season. He boasts a career 183-107-2 (.630) regular-season record, owns two Super Bowl appearances (winning one), and has eight playoff wins. And yet, he’s never won Coach of the Year — despite being the winningest coach in NFL history without the award. Last season, he was the betting favorite to win it in November before he faded away, but the framework is there for a run in 2025.
Why 2025 Sets Up Perfectly
The Steelers enter the season as underdogs in a brutal AFC North, home to Lamar Jackson’s Ravens and a healthy Joe Burrow-led Bengals squad. If Tomlin can guide this roster back to the playoffs — especially with a major question mark at quarterback — it will be impossible to ignore his candidacy.
While Pittsburgh still doesn’t have a clear long-term solution under center, there’s buzz. Mason Rudolph is back and the front office added DK Metcalf via trade, one of the most physical and explosive wideouts in the NFL. If rumors of a potential Aaron Rodgers signing materialize, this bet becomes even more appealing. But even if it doesn’t, there’s a path for Tomlin to elevate this group with stability, toughness and one of the league’s top defensive minds.
New OC Arthur Smith brings a run-heavy, play-action system that fits Pittsburgh’s identity, and the roster is taking shape around that blueprint. The Steelers invested heavily in defense and the trenches, drafting Oregon DT Derrick Harmon (FBS leader in DT pressures) in the first round and Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson (475 touches without a lost fumble) in the third. Throw in value picks like Edge rusher Jack Sawyer and QB Will Howard — fresh off a national title — and it’s clear Tomlin is doubling down on physicality and culture.
A Schedule Built for a Storyline
The Steelers’ 2025 schedule sets the table for a compelling narrative. They play just two road games in their first five weeks and have prime-time matchups against contenders like the Dolphins, Bills, and Bengals. Signature wins in those spots would catapult Tomlin into the COY spotlight. Down the stretch, marquee showdowns vs. Baltimore (Weeks 14 and 18), Detroit, and Miami offer plenty of national exposure.
Final Word
If the Steelers make the playoffs with a shaky quarterback room, behind a ground-and-pound offense and defense-first identity, it’ll be hard for voters to ignore Mike Tomlin. At +4000, he’s not just a value — he’s the best value on the board in the NFL Coach of the Year market.
Take the shot now. If Pittsburgh gets off to a hot start and proves the doubters wrong, this number won’t last.
Dan Karpuc is the Founder of Sleeper Central and a seasoned sports betting expert. Previously, he served as the Director of Digital Content at BetQL (acquired by Audacy) and has contributed to top sports media outlets, including GiveMeSport, 12Up, TradeSports, HuffPost, Bleacher Report, and ESPN. With millions of words published across the industry, Dan is a leading voice in sports betting analysis and strategy. His passion for longshot player prop bets fueled the creation of Sleeper Central, where he continues to provide sharp insights and innovative betting content.
