MLB Sleeper Picks & Longshots

Today’s MLB Odds

MLB Longshot Picks for Today

Tyler Soderstrom to Hit a Home Run (+525, BetMGM)
Soderstrom is in a great matchup here. He’s slugged 9 homers in just 28 games and now gets to face Patrick Corbin, who’s giving up tons of contact and has historically been crushed by lefty and righty power alike. Globe Life Field is also a top-5 homer-friendly park. At +525 (implied probability 16%), it’s a great spot to bet on Soderstrom’s raw power against a pitcher prone to blowups — especially on Happy Patrick Corbin Day. We’re getting a discount based on the lefty-lefty matchup, so I’m all about this.

Bailey Ober 8+ Strikeouts (+600, FanDuel)
This is a pure ceiling play. Ober has 21 strikeouts in 69 at-bats against active Guardians hitters. Cleveland ranks 9th in strikeout rate over the past week and hasn’t been making much hard contact. At +600 (implied probability of 14.3%), you’re betting on Ober working deep into the game against an average-at-best lineup and racking up Ks against a Guardians team that’s swinging and missing more than usual. There’s enough upside to sprinkle.

MLB Longshot Picks: Where the Hidden Value Lies

When it comes to MLB betting, the biggest wins often come from finding undervalued sleeper picks and longshot props. While the public tends to focus on stars and short odds, sharp bettors know that deep value lies in overlooked matchups, player props, and futures markets. At Sleeper Central, we specialize in identifying high-upside, low-risk plays that can deliver big payouts over the course of the long MLB season. Whether it’s a home run prop at +800 or a deep-cut Cy Young future, these are the bets that offer real edge.

Home Run Prop Value

Elite power hitters always draw attention, but the best value often comes from overlooked sluggers in great matchups. A No. 6 hitter in a hitter-friendly park facing a struggling pitcher might be priced at +750 to go yard—offering far more upside than a superstar slugger at +250.

Sleeper Strikeout Props

Books tend to shade strikeout props toward elite pitchers, leaving value on underrated arms. A young starter or spot starter facing a high-strikeout lineup might be set at 4.5 Ks at plus money—despite strong underlying swing-and-miss metrics.

RBI & Runs Scored Longshots

While total bases and home run props are popular, RBI and run-scored bets are often overlooked. A cleanup hitter behind two high-OBP bats in a projected high-scoring game might offer +350 or better to record 2+ RBIs, creating strong value.

First-Inning Longshots

YRFI and NRFI bets are widely available, but targeting specific outcomes in the first inning can unlock major longshot value. Instead of betting “Yes” on a run scored, consider +1000 or longer odds on a leadoff hitter to homer or drive in a run during the first inning.

Futures Market Longshots

The 162-game grind creates plenty of futures value early in the season. From MVP and Cy Young sleepers to longshot playoff bets, here’s where to look:

MVP Dark Horses: Rising stars who haven’t hit the national radar yet
Cy Young Sleepers: High-strikeout arms on improving or playoff-caliber teams
Rookie of the Year Longshots: Prospects getting everyday at-bats or starts
Team Futures: Underrated rosters with paths to 80+ wins can often be found at +3000 or longer to make the playoffs

Example: A team with a win total set at 75 might be mispriced and available at +5000 to win their division or +10000 to win the pennant.

Final Thoughts

MLB betting is all about finding mispriced markets and staying ahead of the curve. By identifying hidden edges—whether it’s a juicy +850 home run prop or a forgotten Cy Young candidate—you can turn long odds into long-term profits. Check back daily at Sleeper Central for the sharpest MLB longshot bets, player prop angles, and futures value plays.