NFL
Don’t Sleep on the Patriots Winning the AFC East
With a favorable 2025 schedule, the Patriots are a live longshot to win the division in Mike Vrabel’s debut season as head coach.
After a full offseason overhaul and a favorable 2025 schedule, the New England Patriots are an extremely live longshot to win the AFC East — and at +625 (best price at Caesars), the value is simply too good to ignore.
The Patriots have the third-easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this season (.429 opponent win rate), play 12 games at 1 p.m. ET, and avoid all West Coast trips. In fact, they’ll travel the sixth-fewest miles in the league — a stark contrast from 2024 when they had the fourth-most. That kind of continuity and routine bodes well for a team built around a young quarterback and a revamped coaching staff. A late Week 14 bye gives them a needed breather before a potentially playoff-deciding four-game stretch to close the year. And more importantly, a realistic 13-4 record is on the table when you walk through the matchups. They open with four winnable games against the Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers, and Panthers. They get the Saints, Titans, Browns, Falcons, Jets (twice), Bengals, Giants, and Dolphins again later in the season — all matchups where they should be favored or slight underdogs. Losses at Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Baltimore and a split with the Bills are baked in, but there’s upside if they steal one or two of those.
On the roster side, the Patriots made a clear effort to surround second-year quarterback Drake Maye with protection and playmakers. The additions of Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Morgan Moses, Wes Schweitzer, and Garrett Bradbury elevate the offense’s floor. The team also used the No. 4 overall pick on left tackle Will Campbell and added explosive weapons like running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Kyle Williams in the draft. That’s a clear indication that they’re building this offense around Maye — and doing so aggressively. Josh McDaniels returns to run the offense, which should help simplify things for Maye and allow him to play faster in Year 2.
Defensively, they didn’t hold back. Carlton Davis, Harold Landry, Milton Williams, and Robert Spillane all bring toughness, athleticism, and experience to a unit that needed a serious boost. New head coach Mike Vrabel is a natural culture-setter and leader who should bring instant credibility to the locker room. With this combination of player upgrades, coaching stability, and favorable schedule dynamics, it’s easy to see the Patriots exceeding expectations quickly.
As for the rest of the AFC East? The Bills were extremely quiet in free agency and are banking on aging veterans to carry them through another season. The Dolphins made very few offseason moves and still have to navigate injury risk and long-term volatility with Tyreek Hill. The Jets are still the Jets — and with Aaron Rodgers aging and coming off a season-ending injury, it’s hard to trust that offense to be reliable.
The Patriots have made more moves than any team in the division, have the most manageable schedule, and are trending up with a second-year quarterback in an ideal development environment. If they hit their stride early — and they have every opportunity to do so — this number won’t be available for long.
At +625 to win the AFC East, the Patriots are one of the smartest longshot futures bets on the board this summer.
Dan Karpuc is the Founder of Sleeper Central and a seasoned sports betting expert. Previously, he served as the Director of Digital Content at BetQL (acquired by Audacy) and has contributed to top sports media outlets, including GiveMeSport, 12Up, TradeSports, HuffPost, Bleacher Report, and ESPN. With millions of words published across the industry, Dan is a leading voice in sports betting analysis and strategy. His passion for longshot player prop bets fueled the creation of Sleeper Central, where he continues to provide sharp insights and innovative betting content.
