This QB is a Longshot Worth Watching to Start Week 1 for Saints

Don’t let the +2500 odds fool you — Jake Haener may have a more realistic shot to start Week 1 for the New Orleans Saints than the betting market suggests.

Following Derek Carr’s surprise retirement this offseason, the Saints suddenly find themselves in the midst of a wide-open quarterback competition. First-year head coach Kellen Moore has made it clear that the team will “let all three of these guys roll,” referring to Jake Haener (+2500), Spencer Rattler (+200), and Tyler Shough (-295), who is currently the betting favorite to take the first snap in Week 1 on DraftKings.

But while Shough may be the frontrunner on paper — as a second-round rookie out of Louisville — there’s a case to be made that Haener has just as much of a shot to seize the job in what Moore insists will be a fair, rotating evaluation.

A True Open Battle

Moore and newly hired offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier have a long history of developing quarterbacks together — from Dallas to Los Angeles to Philadelphia — and both are stepping into their new roles in New Orleans with a blank slate. That could benefit Haener, who was a fourth-round pick in 2023 and started one game last season.

Although his 2023 stat line doesn’t pop — 18-of-39 (46.2%) for 226 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT — it’s worth noting that the team went 0-7 in games started by Haener or Rattler last season, and both averaged 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Neither showed much, but neither had much to work with either, as the Saints’ offense struggled mightily.

Now under the guidance of Moore and Nussmeier — who just led the Eagles to a Super Bowl with an elite scoring offense — this entire QB room is getting a reset.

Shough May Be Overvalued

Shough, the odds-on favorite, is a 25-year-old rookie who spent six years bouncing between Oregon, Texas Tech, and Louisville. While he boasts solid senior-year numbers (62.7% completion rate, 23 TDs, 6 INTs), scouts have noted his inconsistency and lack of polish. He enters the NFL with no pro experience and minimal reps against elite defenses.

Rattler, meanwhile, started six games last year, throwing for 1,317 yards, four touchdowns, and five picks on 57% completions. While he offers some mobility (146 rushing yards), his decision-making remains a concern — and the Saints didn’t invest heavily in him (fifth-round pick in 2024).

Haener, though lightly used, has had two full years in the NFL and offers prototypical pocket-passing traits. If Moore and Nussmeier want a high-IQ distributor to run their timing-based offense, Haener could surprise. He’s the only QB in the room with as much experience watching NFL tape, going to meetings, lifts and practices under his belt — and that continuity shouldn’t be overlooked.

Betting Angle: +2500 Is Mispriced

Given the coaching comments, wide-open nature of the competition, and uncertainty surrounding all three candidates, Haener at +2500 is simply too long. If Moore is true to his word about rotating and evaluating all three guys fairly, Haener has just as much of a chance to impress during camp and the preseason as the others.

For bettors looking to invest in a value longshot with a realistic narrative path, Haener is the best dart throw on the board.

DraftKings Odds to Start Week 1 for Saints

• Tyler Shough: -295 (74.68% implied probability)
• Spencer Rattler: +200 (33.33% implied probability)
• Jake Haener: +2500 (3.85% implied probability)

With a new regime, an equal-opportunity competition, and no entrenched starter, Jake Haener is one strong preseason away from forcing his way into the Week 1 lineup — and potentially cashing big for those bold enough to grab him now.

Dan Karpuc

Dan Karpuc is the Founder of Sleeper Central and a seasoned sports betting expert. Previously, he served as the Director of Digital Content at BetQL (acquired by Audacy) and has contributed to top sports media outlets, including GiveMeSport, 12Up, TradeSports, HuffPost, Bleacher Report, and ESPN. With millions of words published across the industry, Dan is a leading voice in sports betting analysis and strategy. His passion for longshot player prop bets fueled the creation of Sleeper Central, where he continues to provide sharp insights and innovative betting content.